Pathways to Peace: Can India and Pakistan Resolve Their Conflicts?

Recent Developments and Diplomatic Landscape Ceasefire and Aftermath: A ceasefire was announced on May 10, 2025, after days of military escalation triggered by the Pahalgam terrorist attack. The truce, brokered with involvement from the US and several other countries, paused hostilities but left underlying issues unresolved. Both sides have since accused each other of ceasefire violations, and punitive non-military actions—such as suspended visa services, closed airspace, halted trade, and the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty—remain in place. Talks and Preconditions: Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has publicly offered to resume peace talks with India, but India remains skeptical, citing concerns over terrorism and the need for credible assurances. India insists that any talks must focus on terrorism and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, while Pakistan seeks discussion on water sharing and the status of Indian-administered Kashmir. Key Obstacles to Peace Mutual Distrust: Decades of violence, cross-border attacks, and accusations of supporting terrorism have entrenched suspicion on both sides. Each perceives the other’s peace overtures as tactical or insincere. Divergent Agendas: India views Kashmir as an internal matter and resists third-party mediation, while Pakistan advocates for international involvement and highlights water disputes and Kashmir’s political status. Nuclear Brinkmanship: Both countries’ nuclear capabilities raise the stakes, with each side warning that certain provocations—such as attacks or interference with water flows—could be considered acts of war. Domestic Political Pressures: Nationalist politics in both countries make compromise difficult, as leaders face public and political backlash for perceived concessions. Pathways to Peace: What Could Work? 1. Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs): Restoring Communication: Reopening diplomatic channels, reinstating visa services, and resuming people-to-people exchanges can help reduce misunderstandings and humanize the “enemy.” Military Hotlines and Crisis Management: Regular contact between military commanders to prevent escalation from minor incidents along the Line of Control. Trade and Economic Cooperation: Gradually restoring trade links and cross-border commerce can create economic incentives for peace and mutual prosperity. Water Cooperation: Reviving the Indus Waters Treaty, which has historically survived wars and crises, could serve as a foundation for rebuilding trust. 2. Structured Dialogue: Bilateral Talks: Resuming comprehensive dialogue, as seen in the past Composite Dialogue process, to address all outstanding issues including terrorism, Kashmir, and water sharing. Track II Diplomacy: Involving civil society, business leaders, and retired officials in informal discussions to generate new ideas and reduce hostility. 3. International Mediation and Support: Third-Party Facilitation: While India traditionally resists outside involvement, recent events saw the US, UK, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia play roles in brokering the ceasefire. Continued discreet facilitation could help maintain momentum. Global Pressure: Sustained international attention and pressure can encourage both sides to avoid escalation and return to the negotiating table. The Road Ahead: Cautious Optimism or More of the Same? Despite the current ceasefire, relations remain fragile. Underlying grievances—especially over Kashmir and terrorism—have not been addressed, and both sides maintain assertive military postures. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and ongoing punitive measures underscore the depth of the crisis. Without substantive political dialogue, experts warn that renewed hostilities are likely. However, the willingness to maintain a ceasefire, the initiation of military-to-military talks, and international involvement offer glimmers of hope. The future of Indo-Pak relations will depend on the political will to move beyond entrenched positions, implement confidence-building measures, and engage in sustained, structured dialogue.